We’re making sure our business plan delivers what consumers and stakeholders need from us in the changing energy landscape.
At this time of uncertainty for the energy industry it is increasingly difficult to establish a single accurate long-term forecast on which to base our business plan around. The level of uncertainty has been growing over the last ten years or so. Recognising this uncertainty, the System Operator started to move away from producing single view forecasts towards a range of scenarios in 2011. Future Energy Scenarios (FES) is produced by the System Operator each year to provide a credible range of energy futures for Great Britain, and involves input from our customers and stakeholders (480 in 2018) across all parts of the energy industry.
We need a robust, credible and verifiable set of data to base our RIIO-2 business plan on and it must be flexible enough to deal with the inherent change and uncertainty we are seeing in the energy landscape. This will ensure our business plan meets the needs customers, stakeholders and consumers. To provide this, we have proposed using FES 2018 as the foundation for our business plan and have detailed in our document below our proposed approach to using scenarios. This has been supported by stakeholders – in our August 2018 webinar, 98% of respondents supported or mostly supported our proposed approach.
We are looking at what is common across the FES 2018 scenarios to establish a baseline commonality “scorecard” and will work with stakeholders to consider where there is uncertainty and change and what the implications of this might be for the industry and consumers and what potential role the ESO can play here. You can view our commonality scorecard in our stakeholder update below. We will test this during autumn 2018 during the FES workshops. You can find out more detail about this on the FES website.
The links below will help you find out more about FES 2018, our stakeholder-led approach to developing it, and our baseline scenarios and key drivers of uncertainty.